Player Penetration By The Numbers

The market for freely downloadable media players has long represented the front lines for companies embroiled in the codec wars. Since the results of most side-by-side comparisons are subjective and qualitative at best, 微软, 苹果, 真正的, Macromedia, and DivX have crowed about how many times their respective media players have been downloaded to convince content providers that using their codecs will offer the greatest reach. 表面上看, 这个逻辑是有道理的, but the truth is much more complicated than it seems at first glance.

首先, the metrics cited usually give the total number of downloads rather than the number of unique users. +, they rarely mention whether the amount reflects new downloads or established users upgrading to the latest version. If the number refers to the last two versions of a media player, then one user can easily equal a half-dozen downloads when you take into account a laptop, 家里的桌面, 和工作电脑.

On top of this, the numbers often only count downloads from the company’s Web site. Considering the fact that many of these players have myriad distribution channels outside of the company’s own site, most of the market penetration numbers that you read are, 他们自己, 几乎没用.

But that’s not to say that there’s no value in taking media player market penetration into consideration when choosing a codec; you just need a little perspective. This article takes a look at five major media players—Windows Media Player, QuickTime, 真正的Player, Macromedia Flash Player, and DivX—with an eye towards what these numbers represent and what effect recent news may have on the global outlook for player penetration.

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A prime example of the caveats associated with taking download numbers at face value can be found in the purported 250 million downloads of the QuickTime player. "The only distribution numbers that we track are platform,弗兰克·卡萨诺瓦说, 苹果’s senior director of product marketing for the interactive media group. "When people come to our site they declare if they want the PC or Mac version." Casanova cites the fact that 98% of the downloads are the PC version as evidence of QuickTime’s universal adoption, but the fact that 苹果 doesn’t track individual users renders the 250 million downloads meaningless.

But this doesn’t negate the veracity of the number nearly as much as the fact that 250 million actually only represents a small slice of the total number of players in circulation because it only counts downloads from 苹果’s Web site. The other ways in which QuickTime’s player is distributed include digital cameras, of which there are more than 50 different models from companies like Canon and Olympus; nonlinear editing tools like Final Cut Pro; education and entertainment software titles; enhanced music CDs that offer video in addition to audio; and iTunes. "One of the biggest computer manufacturers in China packages it, as well as AOL," says Casanova. "Distribution isn’t a problem for us.事实上, Casanova roughly estimates that the total number of players in the market easily exceeds a billion.

While QuickTime’s architecture formed the basis of MPEG-4’s development, 苹果 as a company is fairly neutral as to which codec it wants to see win out. "苹果 is a hardware company," explains Casanova. “首先也是最重要的, we’re interested in selling content creation platforms; it doesn’t matter what format the content ends up in." That said, a recent Frost & Sullivan report indicated that QuickTime is creeping up on market leader 微软 in the battle for streaming dominance, 指挥36.8%的市场份额.