我们应该相信尼尔森的数学吗?
在回顾 尼尔森/ Gracenote2023年的游戏状态报告， Data-Driven Personalization: The Future of Streaming Content Discovery, I found the numbers they cited to be very much on the creative side. I don’t get a warm, fuzzy feeling when I think about their research.
内容的体积
Nielsen and Gracenote (Nielsen’s content solutions business unit) say that when you sit down to watch something, 现在已经超过了2个.7 million titles from broadcast, cable, and streaming to choose from. In the 2021 report, this number was almost 1 million lower. So, the first message the report conveys is that things have grown at a remarkably fast clip. 但这只是冰山一角.
报告继续指出2.其中300万人.700万册——86册.7%是流媒体游戏. So, the second message is that streaming is getting the lion’s share of the viewing, and then some.
The third message is where things start to enter another dimension when it comes to plausibility. This report draws on a survey sample collected during a 2-week period in June–July 2023 and counts programming from 五个国家加起来:美国.S.，美国.K.美国、加拿大、墨西哥和德国.
资料来源:尼尔森/Gracenote 2023年游戏状态报告
实际上，大多数观众——假设是99人.99% —are not searching these five countries for viewing at one time, 这是不寻常的吗, 有潜在的误导性, 呈现数据的方式. Unless the only businesses Nielsen did this research for are large media companies distributing to all of these countries or large conglomerates advertising in all of these markets, I’m not clear on why the research lumped these countries together.
I wanted to try to distill it down to something I’m hoping will be more precise. 为了准确起见, I did some napkin math using a ruler to measure the graph on my computer screen. According to my calculations—which I’ll call the fourth message of the report—the actual numbers are a lot smaller. Here’s what I came up with as the measurement of titles on streaming services by country:
- U.S.: 900,000
- 加拿大:400000
- UK: 500,000
- 德国:400000
- 墨西哥:150000
我的总数是235万. Nielsen’s total is 2,346,171, so I’d say we’re pretty close.
So, 这取决于你的国家, 你可能有多达900个,000本书可供选择，少则150本,000. 这两个数字仍然很大, just nowhere near the aggregate number the report put forth when it combined all five countries.
内容源
The fifth message of the report is the amount of viewing locations. 它的州, Gracenote全球视频数据公司的记录是超过39,为美国观众提供500个不同的频道.S., U.K.截止到2023年6月，美国、加拿大、墨西哥和德国的关税将会下降.S. 占其中的近80%.”
资料来源:尼尔森/Gracenote 2023年游戏状态报告
报告接着说, “Each channel represents a unique source of linear programming, 比如ABC和《百家乐软件app最新版下载》, 冥王星电视台的一个原创频道. 分别, 有超过167个独特的流媒体视频源, 每个代表一个单独的提供者, 比如Netflix和Disney+. This view of where video engagement is taking place is much different than a consolidated list of channels within a single cable package.”
这第五个信息是我开始进入深水的地方. There are 167 unique streaming video sources, each of which represents a different provider. How do we get from 39,500 distinct channels to 167 unique streaming sources? 我不清楚. On average, 39,500 channels divided by 167 video sources equals 236.53. Does this mean each provider distributes, on average, to 236 platforms?
第六个信息是，在美国.S.到2023年5月，SVOD观看量将下降到所有流媒体的49%. AVOD增长到26%, and MVPD/vMVPD streaming (broadcast content distributed through digital channels or apps) grew to 15%.
The seventh message is that, as of June 2023, there were 1,400-plus FAST channels. 具体如下:
- U.S.: 1,073
- UK: 206
- 德国:108
- 其他:37
美国.S. 很明显FAST在哪里爆炸了. 它会在其他地方做得很好吗? 看完报告后, I did a quick check-in with a friend who is a technology executive to get a bit more detail on FAST.
“One aspect of FAST ad revenue is measured in CPM [cost per 1,和填充率,我的联系人告诉我. 在美国.S., you could confidently tell content owners to expect a CPM between $12 and $18, 但如果你有优质内容, 你在另一个领域. 例如，《百家乐软件app最新版下载》的CPM可能在45 - 90美元之间.”
关于填补率，我的联系人说，“在美国.S.，你应该期待70%-90%. The rest of the world is looking at much smaller CPMs and much lower fill rates, meaning viewers are seeing a lot of annoying ‘We’ll be right back’ slates and more than likely seeing the same ad every single ad break.”
内容过载和碎片化
The eighth message in the report is that viewers now spend an average of 10.花5分钟找点东西看. 在2019年的报告中，这一数字接近7.5分钟. 这是我发现的首批可信数据之一.
大胆尝试一下, 如果有大量的内容, and the premise now is that viewers are abandoning subscriptions in favor of ad-supported viewing, then there’s a need for better metadata tagging to make subscriptions more appealing. By the way, better metadata is, coincidentally, precisely the product that 尼尔森/ Gracenote offers.
最后一条信息是我的要点. 有大量的碎片, 商业模式已经转变, 观众被内容淹没了. 了解如何应对这一点非常重要, 但是，如何提高透明度呢, 对于初学者来说? 如何定义一段内容, 你说的频道是什么意思, 消费者在哪里观看? How this breaks down is much more important than anything else that comes next, 因为如果你的数据不可信或不清晰, 我们得换个话题谈谈.
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